Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
